Randomness Tag Archive

Focus on staying in the game until the odds fall in your favour

(Excerpt from The Psychology of Money by Morgan Housel) The trick when dealing with failure is arranging your financial life in a way that a bad investment here and a missed financial goal there won’t wipe...

Investing, Luck, Randomness Read More

Super successful individuals are cases of extreme luck

(Excerpt from The Psychology of Money by Morgan Housel) …focus less on specific individuals and case studies and more on broad patterns. Studying a specific person can be dangerous because we tend to...

Luck, Randomness, Success, Survivorship Bias Read More

Ben Graham’s return was largely delivered by GEICO

(Excerpt from The Psychology of Money by Morgan Housel) Benjamin Graham is known as one of the greatest investors of all time, the father of value investing and the early mentor of Warren Buffett. But the majority of...

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Making a life choice is a bet on a future version of us

(Excerpt from Thinking In Bets by Annie Duke) In most of our decisions, we are not betting against another person. Rather, we are betting against all the future versions of ourselves that we are not choosing. …...

Life, Luck, Optionality, Path Dependence, Randomness, Success Read More

Success is 99.9% luck

(Excerpt from Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb) we often have the mistaken impression that a strategy is an excellent strategy, or an entrepreneur a person endowed with “vision,” or a trader a talented trader,...

Randomness, Survivorship Bias Read More

How do you get rich without getting lucky?

(Extracted from The Financial Turing Test by Nick Maggiulli) It is probably better to listen to a self-made rich person than a self-made poor person when it comes to financial matters.  However, this doesn’t...

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Some advantages of randomness

(Extracted from Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb) Another way to see the beastly aspect of schedules and rigid projections is to think in limit situations. Would you like to know with great precision the date...

Randomness Read More

Luck alone can create successful fund managers

(Extracted from Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb) We create a cohort that is composed exclusively of incompetent managers. We will define an incompetent manager as someone who has a negative expected return,...

Investing, Randomness Read More

Luck factor increases with sample size

(Excerpt from Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb) The initial sample size matters greatly. If there are five monkeys in the game, I would be rather impressed with the Iliad writer, to the point of suspecting him to...

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Mild success by hard work. Wild success by luck.

(Extracted from Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb) Nero believes that risk-conscious hard work and discipline can lead someone to achieve a comfortable life with a very high probability. Beyond that, it is all...

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