Bias

We see the world the way we want it to be

(Excerpt from The Almanack of Ravikant) The number one thing clouding us from being able to see reality is we have preconceived notions of the way it should be. One definition of a moment of suffering is “the moment...

Confirmation Bias, Ego Read More

Super successful individuals are cases of extreme luck

(Excerpt from The Psychology of Money by Morgan Housel) …focus less on specific individuals and case studies and more on broad patterns. Studying a specific person can be dangerous because we tend to...

Luck, Randomness, Success, Survivorship Bias Read More

Live in a fake cosy world or the matrix

(Excerpt from Thinking In Bets by Annie Duke) In the movie, the matrix was built to be a more comfortable version of the world. Our brains, likewise, have evolved to make our version of the world more comfortable: our...

Ego, Self-serving Bias Read More

Self-serving bias serves the ego

(Excerpt from Thinking In Bets by Annie Duke) self-serving bias arises from our drive to create a positive self-narrative. In that narrative, taking credit for something good is the same as saying we made the right...

Ego, Luck, Self-serving Bias Read More

Express your confidence in the accuracy of your belief in percentages

(Excerpt from Thinking In Bets by Annie Duke) … we also rated our level of confidence about the accuracy of our belief on a scale of zero to ten? Zero would mean we are certain a belief is not true. Ten would...

Confirmation Bias, Ego, Fallibility, Overconfidence Bias Read More

The smarter you are, the more you succumb to your biases

(Excerpt from Thinking In Bets by Annie Duke) Surprisingly, being smart can actually make bias worse. Let me give you a different intuitive frame: the smarter you are, the better you are at constructing a narrative...

Bias Read More

We alter information to fit our beliefs

(Excerpt from Thinking In Bets by Annie Duke) Truthseeking, the desire to know the truth regardless of whether the truth aligns with the beliefs we currently hold, is not naturally supported by the way we process...

Ego, Overconfidence Bias Read More

The three largest sample sizes

Every statistician knows that a large, relevant sample size is their best friend. What are the three largest, most relevant sample sizes for identifying universal principles? Bucket number one is inorganic systems,...

Selection Bias Read More

Getting someone’s winning lottery numbers

(Excerpt from Beware of Advice by Derek Sivers) When successful people give advice, I usually hear it like this: “Here are the lottery numbers I played: 14 29 71 33 8. They worked for me!” Success is based on so...

Life, Survivorship Bias Read More

Optimism is a necessary ingredient to progress when the odds are against you

(Excerpt from Same As It Ever Was by Morgan Housel) We tell ourselves stories about our potential for progress because if we’re realistic about how common failure and pain is, we’d never get off the couch. Few would...

Overconfidence Bias, Success Read More