(Excerpt from The Almanack of Ravikant) The number one thing clouding us from being able to see reality is we have preconceived notions of the way it should be. One definition of a moment of suffering is “the moment...
December 29, 2020|
Confirmation Bias, Ego
(Excerpt from The Psychology of Money by Morgan Housel) …focus less on specific individuals and case studies and more on broad patterns. Studying a specific person can be dangerous because we tend to...
September 26, 2020|
Luck, Randomness, Success, Survivorship Bias
(Excerpt from Thinking In Bets by Annie Duke) In the movie, the matrix was built to be a more comfortable version of the world. Our brains, likewise, have evolved to make our version of the world more comfortable: our...
August 29, 2020|
Ego, Self-serving Bias
(Excerpt from Thinking In Bets by Annie Duke) self-serving bias arises from our drive to create a positive self-narrative. In that narrative, taking credit for something good is the same as saying we made the right...
August 23, 2020|
Ego, Luck, Self-serving Bias
(Excerpt from Thinking In Bets by Annie Duke) … we also rated our level of confidence about the accuracy of our belief on a scale of zero to ten? Zero would mean we are certain a belief is not true. Ten would...
August 22, 2020|
Confirmation Bias, Ego, Fallibility, Overconfidence Bias
(Excerpt from Thinking In Bets by Annie Duke) Surprisingly, being smart can actually make bias worse. Let me give you a different intuitive frame: the smarter you are, the better you are at constructing a narrative...
August 21, 2020|
(Excerpt from Thinking In Bets by Annie Duke) Truthseeking, the desire to know the truth regardless of whether the truth aligns with the beliefs we currently hold, is not naturally supported by the way we process...
August 16, 2020|
Ego, Overconfidence Bias
Every statistician knows that a large, relevant sample size is their best friend. What are the three largest, most relevant sample sizes for identifying universal principles? Bucket number one is inorganic systems,...
August 11, 2020|
(Excerpt from Beware of Advice by Derek Sivers) When successful people give advice, I usually hear it like this: “Here are the lottery numbers I played: 14 29 71 33 8. They worked for me!” Success is based on so...
August 9, 2020|
Life, Survivorship Bias