Bias Tag Archive

Express your confidence in the accuracy of your belief in percentages

(Excerpt from Thinking In Bets by Annie Duke) … we also rated our level of confidence about the accuracy of our belief on a scale of zero to ten? Zero would mean we are certain a belief is not true. Ten would...

August 22, 2020| Confirmation Bias, Ego, Fallibility, Overconfidence Bias Read More

The smarter you are, the more you succumb to your biases

(Excerpt from Thinking In Bets by Annie Duke) Surprisingly, being smart can actually make bias worse. Let me give you a different intuitive frame: the smarter you are, the better you are at constructing a narrative...

August 21, 2020| Bias Read More

We don’t explain success, we rationalise success

(Excerpt from The Star Principle by Richard Koch) As Professor Phil Rosenzweig of the IMD business school in Switzerland demonstrates, nearly all the usual explanations of business success are useless and exaggerate...

February 18, 2020| Confirmation Bias Read More

Survivors are more obvious than failures

(Excerpt from Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb) There are other aspects to the monkeys problem; in real life the other monkeys are not countable, let alone visible. They are hidden away, as one sees only the...

September 14, 2019| Survivorship Bias Read More

For sure things get you into trouble

“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” Anonymous...

September 9, 2019| Overconfidence Bias Read More

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